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1. 李鶴、張平宇、程葉青：“脆弱性的概念及其評(píng)價(jià)方法”，《地理科學(xué)進(jìn)展》，2008年第2期，第18-25頁；楊飛、馬超、方華軍：“脆弱性研究進(jìn)展：從理論研究到綜合實(shí)踐”，《生態(tài)學(xué)報(bào)》，2019年第2期；王福玲：“認(rèn)真對待脆弱性”，中國社會(huì)科學(xué)網(wǎng)，2021年9月7日，https://m.thepaper.cn/baijiahao_14396138；《中國大百科全書》也收錄了“脆弱性”術(shù)語，界定為經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)范疇，https://www.zgbk.com/ecph/words?SiteID=1&ID =120436

2. Robert O. Keohane, Joseph S. Nye, Power and Interdependence: World Politics in Transition, ?Little, Brown, and Company, 1977, p.13.

3. [美]納西姆·尼古拉斯·塔勒布：《反脆弱》，雨珂譯，北京：中信出版社，2014年。

4. 吳晨：“韌性與創(chuàng)新”，《經(jīng)濟(jì)觀察報(bào)》，2022年12月5日，第1098期。

5. 于濱：“中俄正常關(guān)系的再思考：理論、歷史與未來”，《俄羅斯研究》，2023年第4期。

6. “Will China and Russia Stay Aligned? Foreign Affairs Asks the Experts”, Foreign Affairs, June 21, 2022, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ask-the-experts/2022-06-21/will-china-and-russ ia-stay-aligned

7. 出處同上。

8. Marcin Kaczmarski, “Which Russia-China Relationship Will Emerge After the War?” Italian Institute for International Political Studies, May 5, 2022, https://www.ispionline.it/en/p ublication/which-russia-china-relationship-will-emerge-after-war-34895

9. Eugene Rumer, Richard Sokolsky, “Narrative: All Quiet on the Eastern Front”, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, May 23, 2022, https://carnegieendowment.org/publication s/87185?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss

10. Charles A. Kupchan, “The Right Way to Split China and Russia: Washington Should Help Moscow Leave a Bad Marriage”, Foreign Affairs, August 4, 2021, https://www.foreignaffairs.c om/articles/united-states/2021-08-04/right-way-split-china-and-russia

11. Alexander Gabuev, “China’s New Vassal. How the War in Ukraine Turned Moscow Into Beijing’s Junior Partner”, Foreign Affairs, August 9, 2022, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/chi na/chinas-new-vassal

12. Una Aleksandra Berzina-Cerenkova, “Sino-Russian Narratives of Cooperation and What It Means for the Baltics”, Foreign Policy Research Institute, August 6, 2020, https://www.fpri.or g/article/2020/08/sino-russian-narratives-of-cooperation-and-what-it-means-for-the-baltics/

13.Kathrin Hille et al., “US urged to exploit cracks in Russia-China relationship”, The Financial Times, July 27 2020, https://www.ft.com/content/b59bd581-a9f8-4415-9be6-4dff722 e87a9

14. Alpetrovitch, D., Radchenko, S., “Another Russia Is Possible. The Kremlin Will Eventually Tire of Its Reliance on China”, Foreign Affairs, August 29, 2022, https://www.forei gnaffairs.com/russian-federation/another-russia-possible

15. Charles A. Kupchan, “The Right Way to Split China and Russia: Washington Should Help Moscow Leave a Bad Marriage”, Foreign Affairs, August 4, 2021, https://www.foreignaffairs.c om/articles/united-states/2021-08-04/right-way-split-china-and-russia

16. Alpetrovitch D, Radchenko S, “Another Russia Is Possible. The Kremlin Will Eventually Tire of Its Reliance on China”, Foreign Affairs, August 29, 2022, https://www.foreignaffairs.co m/russian-federation/another-russia-possible

17. Elizabeth Wishnick, “Still ‘No Limits’? The China-Russia Partnership After Samarkand”, Russia Matters, September 22, 2022, https://www.russiamatters.org/analysis/still-no-limits-chi na-russia-partnership-after-samarkand

18. Una Berzina-Cerenkova, Tim Rühlig, “China’s Complex Relations with Russia: Tracing the Limits of a ‘Limitless Friendship’” Internationale Politik Quarterly, September 12, 2023, https://ip-quarterly.com/en/chinas-complex-relations-russia-tracing-limits-limitless-friendship

19. “Will China and Russia Stay Aligned? Foreign Affairs Asks the Experts”.

20. “Will China and Russia Stay Aligned? Foreign Affairs Asks the Experts”.

21. Bobo Lo, “The Sino-Russian Partnership. Assumptions, Myths and Realities”, Russie.Nei.Reports, 2023, No.42, https://www.ifri.org/en/publications/etudes-de-lifri/russienei reports/sino-russian-partnership-assumptions-myths-and

22. [美]T. N. 杜普伊主編：《國際軍事與防務(wù)百科全書》，中國人民解放軍軍事科學(xué)院外國軍事研究部編譯，北京：解放軍出版社，1998年。

23. “A conversation with Henry Kissinger: The transcript of his meeting with our journalists”, The Economist, May 17, 2023, https://www.economist.com/kissinger-transcript

24. Thomas S .Wilkins, “‘Alignment’, not ‘a(chǎn)lliance’ – the shifting paradigm of international security cooperation: Toward a conceptual taxonomy of alignment”, Review of International Studies, 2012, Vol.38, No.1, pp.53-76.

25. [美]戴維·萊克：《國際關(guān)系中的等級(jí)制》，高婉妮譯，上海：上海人民出版社，2013年。

26. 鄭宇：“21世紀(jì)多邊主義的危機(jī)與轉(zhuǎn)型”，《世界經(jīng)濟(jì)與政治》，2020年第8期。

27. [美]布熱津斯基：“美對華缺戰(zhàn)略目光 需警惕中俄結(jié)盟”，《環(huán)球時(shí)報(bào)》，2017年1月13日；“社評(píng)：結(jié)伙對抗中俄將是美西方噩夢之旅”，《環(huán)球時(shí)報(bào)》，2021年5月5日。

28. Eugene Rumer, Richard Sokolsky, “Narrative: All Quiet on the Eastern Front”, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, May 23, 2022, https://carnegieendowment.org/publication s/87185?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss

29. “Will China and Russia Stay Aligned? Foreign Affairs Asks the Experts”.

30. 出處同上。

31. 出處同上。

32. Simon Saradzhyan, “Why Russia’s alliance with China is improbable, but not impossible”, The Foundation for Strategic Research, September 21, 2020, https://www.frstrategie.org/en/pu blications/recherches-et-documents/why-russia-s-alliance-china-improbable-not-impossible-2020

33. “Will China and Russia Stay Aligned? Foreign Affairs Asks the Experts”.

34. 該項(xiàng)目的核心成員包括：美國前負(fù)責(zé)亞太事務(wù)的副國務(wù)卿詹姆斯?斯坦伯格（James B. Steinberg），國家亞洲研究局主席、著名的中美關(guān)系專家理查德·埃林斯（Richard Ellings），知名“中國通”、曾任國家情報(bào)委員會(huì)負(fù)責(zé)東亞和太平洋事務(wù)的情報(bào)官羅伯特?薩特（Robert Sutter），長期供職布魯金斯學(xué)會(huì)負(fù)責(zé)俄羅斯歐亞項(xiàng)目的資深俄羅斯問題專家安杰拉·斯滕特（Angela Stent），哈德遜研究所政治與軍事分析中心主任理查德?韋茨（Richard Weitz）等。See “Strategic Implications of China-Russia Relations”, https://www.nbr. org/program/strategic-implications-of-russia-china-relations/

35. Richard J. Ellings and Robert Sutter, Axis of Authoritarians: Implications of China-Russia Cooperation, National Bureau of Asian Research, 2018. https://www.nbr.org/publication/axis- of-authoritarians-implications-of-china-russia-cooperation/

36. 于濱：“美國外交政策中的‘中俄溫差’”，《俄羅斯研究》，2020年第5期，第70-108頁。

37. Hal Brands, “The Eurasian Nightmare. Chinese-Russian Convergence and the Future of American Order”, Foreign Affairs, February 25, 2022, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ china/2022-02-25/eurasian-nightmare?check_logged_in=1&utm_medium=promo_email&utm_source=lo_flows&utm_campaign=registered_user_welcome&utm_term=email_1&utm_content=20231125

38. “Putin to visit China to deepen ‘no limits’ partnership with Xi”, October 15, 2023, https://w ww.reuters.com/world/putin-visit-china-deepen-no-limits-partnership-with-xi-2023-10-15/

39. 《中華人民共和國和俄羅斯聯(lián)邦關(guān)于新時(shí)代國際關(guān)系和全球可持續(xù)發(fā)展的聯(lián)合聲明》，《人民日報(bào)》，2022年2月5日第2版。

40. Samuel Charap, John Drennan, Pierre No?l, “Russia and China: A New Model of Great-Power Relations”, Survival, 2017, Vol.59, No.1, pp.25-42.

41. Bobo Lo, “The Sino-Russian Partnership. Assumptions, Myths and Realities”.

42. “Will China and Russia Stay Aligned? Foreign Affairs Asks the Experts”.

43. Robert E. Hamilton, “Stress-Testing Chinese-Russian Relations”, Foreign Policy Research Institute, May 25, 2023, https://www.fpri.org/article/2023/05/stress-testing-chinese-russian- relations/

44. Lukyanov, F.A, “Between Two Special Operations”, Russia in Global Affairs, 2023, Vol.21, No.2, pp.5-10.

45. Sergey Radchenko, “Driving a Wedge Between China and Russia Won’t Work”, War on the Rocks, August 24, 2021, https://warontherocks.com/2021/08/driving-a-wedge-between-chi na-and-russia-wont-work/

46. “Will China and Russia Stay Aligned? Foreign Affairs Asks the Experts”.

47. Michael Kofman, “The Emperors League: Understanding Sino-Russian Defense Cooperation”, War on the Rocks, August 6, 2020, https://warontherocks.com/2020/08/the-emp erors-league-understanding-sino-russian-defense-cooperation/

48. Dmitriy Nurullayev, Mihaela Papa, “Bloc Politics at the UN: How Other States Behave When the United States and China–Russia Disagree”, Global Studies Quarterly, 2023, Vol.3, No.3, pp.1-11.

49. 孫信、李?。骸扒笸娈愒瓌t溯源”，《中央社會(huì)主義學(xué)院學(xué)報(bào)》，2001年第1期。

50. 引自華東師范大學(xué)俄羅斯研究中心主任馮紹雷教授承擔(dān)的2021年度國家高端智庫重點(diǎn)課題的結(jié)項(xiàng)報(bào)告（未對外發(fā)布）。

51. “Will China and Russia Stay Aligned? Foreign Affairs Asks the Experts”.

52. Stephen J. Hadley, “Stephen Hadley on the Major Challenges Facing the United States Today”, The Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, November 14, 2023, https://w ww.belfercenter.org/publication/stephen-hadley-major-challenges-facing-united-states-today

53. Lindsay Maizland, “China and Russia: Exploring Ties Between Two Authoritarian Powers”, Council on Foreign Relations, June 14, 2022, https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/china-russia- relationship-xi-putin-taiwan-ukraine

54. Samuel Charap, John Drennan & Pierre No?l, “Russia and China: A New Model of Great-Power Relations,” Survival, 2017, Vol.59, No.1, pp.25-42.

55. Hal Brands, “The Eurasian Nightmare. Chinese-Russian Convergence and the Future of American Order”, Foreign Affairs, February 25, 2022, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ china/2022-02-25/eurasian-nightmare?check_logged_in=1&utm_medium=promo_email&utm_source=lo_flows&utm_campaign=registered_user_welcome&utm_term=email_1&utm_content=20231125

56. “Will China and Russia Stay Aligned? Foreign Affairs Asks the Experts”.

57. 出處同上。

58. Joe Webster, Paddy Ryan, “Beijing and Moscow clash over Kazakhstan’s oil”, Eurasianet, Aug 11, 2022, https://eurasianet.org/perspectives-beijing-and-moscow-clash-over-kazakhstans -oil

59. Andrea Kendall-Taylor, David Shullman, Dan McCormick, “Navigating Sino-Russian Defense Cooperation”, War on the Rocks, August 5, 2020, https://warontherocks.com/2020/08/ navigating-sino-russian-defense-cooperation/

60. Adam Segal, “Peering Into the Future of Sino-Russian Cyber Security Cooperation”, War on the Rocks, August 10, 2020, https://warontherocks.com/2020/08/peering-into-the-future-of- sino-russian-cyber-security-cooperation/

61. Nicholas Ross Smith, Tracey Fallon, “The importance of bona fide friendships to international politics: China’s quest for friendships that matter”, Cambridge Review of International Affairs, 2022.

62. “Will China and Russia Stay Aligned? Foreign Affairs Asks the Experts”.

63. William A. Callahan, “Chinese Global Orders: Socialism, Tradition, and Nation in China–Russia Relations”, Issues & Studies, 2023, Vol.59, No.2, pp.1-28.

64. Mikhail Troitskiy, “A Final Reckoning? Sino-Russian Relations Amid Russia’s War on Ukraine”, PONARS, June 9, 2023, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/371445335_A_Fi nal_Reckoning_Sino-Russian_Relations_Amid_Russia's_War_on_Ukraine

65. Sergey Radchenko, “Driving a Wedge Between China and Russia Won’t Work”.

66. Liselotte Odgaard, “Chinese Perspectives on Alliance and Alignment: Entrapment Concerns in China’S Foreign Relations”, Asian Affairs, 2023, Vol.54, No.3, pp.432-452.

67. Andrew Radin, Andrew Scobell, Elina Treyger, J. D. Williams, Logan Ma, Howard J. Shatz, Sean M. Zeigler, Eugeniu Han, Clint Reach, China-Russia Cooperation: Determining Factors, Future Trajectories, Implications for the United States, California: RAND Corporation, 2021. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR3067.html

68. Bj?rn Alexander Düben, “Omnibalancing in China-Russia relations: regime survival and the specter of domestic threats as an impetus for bilateral alignment”, Post-Soviet Affairs, 2023, Vol.39, No.6, pp.462-486.

69. Stephen J. Hadley, Karen Donfried, “Stephen Hadley on the Major Challenges Facing the United States Today”, Belfer Center, November 14, 2023, https://www.belfercenter.org/publica tion/stephen-hadley-major-challenges-facing-united-states-today

70. Andrey Kortunov, “Russia Facing China: Little Red Riding Hood or Cinderella?” Russian International Affairs Council, September 16, 2022, https://russiancouncil.ru/en/analytics-and-c omments/analytics/russia-facing-china-little-red-riding-hood-or-cinderella/

71. Федор Лукьянов. Анти-СВО и ее последствия// Профиль. 2023. №.11-12. С.40-42.

72. “國務(wù)委員兼外交部長王毅就中國外交政策和對外關(guān)系回答中外編輯提問”，中國政府網(wǎng)，2022年3月8日，https://www.gov.cn/xinwen/2022-03/08/content_5677795.htm

73. “王毅會(huì)見俄羅斯外長拉夫羅夫”，中華人民共和國外交部，2022年7月8日，https://www.mfa.gov.cn/web/wjbzhd/202207/t20220708_10717115.shtml

74. “習(xí)近平會(huì)見俄羅斯總統(tǒng)普京”，新華網(wǎng)，2023年3月21日，http://www.news.cn/politics/leaders/2023-03/21/c_1129448868.htm

75. “中俄全方位合作務(wù)實(shí)高效”，人民網(wǎng)，2024年1月8日，http://world.people.com.cn/n1/2024/0108/c1002-40154720.html

76. 關(guān)于認(rèn)知結(jié)構(gòu)的轉(zhuǎn)換性及其轉(zhuǎn)換規(guī)律的論述參見[瑞士]皮亞杰：《結(jié)構(gòu)主義》，倪連生、王琳譯，北京：商務(wù)印書館，1984年，第1-11頁，第52-67頁。也可參見國內(nèi)學(xué)者相關(guān)梳理，陳英和：“皮亞杰學(xué)派與現(xiàn)代認(rèn)知心理學(xué)關(guān)于兒童認(rèn)知發(fā)展觀點(diǎn)之比較”，《北京師范大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)（社會(huì)科學(xué)版）》，1995年第1期。

77. [德]卡爾·馬克思、[德]弗里德里?！ざ鞲袼梗骸恶R克思恩格斯選集》，中共中央馬克思恩格斯列寧斯大林著作編譯局編譯，北京：人民出版社，2012年，第94頁。

78. 本文的“全球轉(zhuǎn)型”主要指：各國內(nèi)部政治經(jīng)濟(jì)體制轉(zhuǎn)型；在此背景下的國際秩序的調(diào)整；作為內(nèi)部制度變遷和國際秩序這兩者間連接物的各國對外政策與戰(zhàn)略。這三者經(jīng)過互動(dòng)而形成的普遍性趨勢與進(jìn)程，可被視為是全球轉(zhuǎn)型的總體態(tài)勢。參見馮紹雷：“歐洲對抗與亞洲突圍——全球轉(zhuǎn)型中的歐亞新博弈”，《俄羅斯研究》，2022年第1期，第84-91頁；Андрей Цыганков, Эпоха полураспада: от миропорядка к миропереходу// Россия в глобальной политике. 2019. T.17. №2; Владимир Барановский. Трансформация глобального миропорядка: динамика системных изменений// Полис. Политические исследования. 2017. №3; Barry Buzan, George Lawson, The Global Transformation: History, Modernity and the Making of International Relations, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2015.

79. 萬青松：“2021年的俄羅斯外交：再平衡中的新調(diào)適”，《俄羅斯研究》，2022年第1期，第164-192頁。

80. 馮紹雷：“舊世界已老去， 新世界尚在構(gòu)建中”，《文匯報(bào)》，2021年1月22日，第8版。

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